The World Steel Association has released its short-term steel demand forecast report for April 2024. Global steel demand is expected to rebound by 1.7% in 2024, reaching 1.793 billion tons; by 2025, this number will grow to 1.815 billion tons. Global steel demand is expected to continue to rise in the next two years.
As far as the Chinese market is concerned, China's steel demand is expected to remain stable in 2024. Although the decline in real estate investment has led to some reductions in demand, growth in infrastructure and manufacturing will make up for this gap. In 2025, steel demand in China is expected to decline slightly but remain below the 2020 peak.
Except for China, steel demand in other countries is expected to grow by 3.5% annually from 2024 to 2025. India's steel demand will be driven by infrastructure investment and is expected to grow by 8%, with demand in 2025 being nearly 70 million tons more than in 2020. Steel demand in emerging economies such as the Middle East, North Africa and ASEAN will also accelerate.
Among advanced economies, steel demand in the European Union is expected to recover substantially in 2025, while steel demand in the United States, Japan and South Korea will remain stable. The EU and UK remain the main challenges to global steel demand growth and face many uncertainties, but are expected to show signs of recovery by 2025.
In terms of downstream industries, demand growth in the residential construction industry is relatively weak due to the impact of high interest rates and high construction costs, while global manufacturing activities are also facing challenges from uncertainty and weak demand.
World Steel Association pointed out that the green transformation of the global economy will promote increased investment in the public infrastructure industry, which will have a positive impact on steel demand. It should be noted that high construction costs and labor shortages may restrict future public infrastructure investment and manufacturing investment growth in the short term.